Posted by Elena del Valle on January 24, 2011
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Photos: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Peter Sommer, Ph.D.
How fragile are our cyber systems? How much effort and sophisticated technology would it take to bring a company or a government office down with a cyber attack? What about a global disruption? Although the technology is constantly changing and no one seems to know the answers for sure there is concern and much speculation on the topic.
A reassuring report released last week indicates it would be difficult to cause serious problems on a world wide scale although it cautions that “Governments nevertheless need to make detailed preparations to withstand and recover from a wide range of unwanted cyber events, both accidental and deliberate. There are significant and growing risks of localised misery and loss as a result of compromise of computer and telecommunications services.”
Examples of single cyber-related events with vast capacity for damage could include an attack on one of the technical protocols the Internet depends on like the Border Gateway Protocol which determines routing between Internet Service Providers; and a very large-scale solar flare if it physically destroys key communications components like satellites, cellular base stations and switches.
What about malicious attacks designed for espionage, to affect distributed denial of service, and the acts of criminals, recreational hackers and hacktivists? According to the two researchers who authored the report such attacks would have a local impact and a brief duration.
They believe cyber warfare is the source of myths mostly. The reason they believe such a situation would be unlikely is because essential computer systems are designed to resist such attacks and malware. Because identifying the actual attackers in cyber attacks is very difficult they suggest defense against cyberweapons should focus on resilience, a combination of preventative measures and alternative plans to allow rapid recovery in case of a successful attack.
They also point out that a significant portion of the infrastructure is most of the countries they studied (OECD countries) are privately owned and not government controlled.
Peter Sommer, Ph.D., coauthor, Reducing Systemic Cybersecurity Risk
“The specific challenges faced by the US, apart from the range of entities that regard it as a target, are the number of powerful Departments (and their supporters in the Senate, the Congress and the arms industry lobbyists) all claiming that they should lead,” said Peter Sommer, Ph.D., coauthor of the report, by email in response to a question about the cyber risk issues as they relate to the United States. “The main players are: the Pentagon (and indeed individual armed services), Department of Homeland Security, Department of Commerce, NSA and FBI. So far President Obama and his cybersecurity advisor Howard Schmidt do not appear to have been able to knock heads together.”
Sommer, visiting professor in the Information Systems and Innovation Group in the Department of Management at the London School of Economics, and Ian Brown, Ph.D., research fellow, Oxford Internet Institute, Oxford University are the coauthors of Reducing Systemic Cybersecurity Risk, a 121-page report published by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), part of the OECD/International Futures Programme Project on Future Global Shocks.
Brown’s research is focused on public policy issues around information and the Internet, particularly privacy and copyright. He also works in the more technical fields of communications security and healthcare informatics. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development provides a forum for member governments to compare policy experiences, “seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and coordinate domestic and international policies.”
Posted by Elena del Valle on January 19, 2011
Photos: Tiffany and Company, Nordstrom
Judging by the end of year sales and revenue reports, it looks like a lot of wealthy shoppers indulged this holiday season. Tiffany & Co. must have a reduction in stock of its famous gift box. While shopping in general during this holiday season rose only 18 percent, purchases by well to do shoppers increased 45 percent, according to a Gallup poll. High-end stores like Neiman Marcus and Tiffany & Co. had strong sales, significantly higher than a year ago.
Neiman Marcus Inc. had a 4.9 percent increase in revenue compared to the same time last year, $583 million compared to $556 million. Revenue for the well known jewelry company increased 7 percent in the United States (in Asia sales were up 15 percent).
Although the holiday season sales in 2009 and 2010 were lower than during pre economic downturn years, luxury spending between November 28, 2010 and January 1, 2011 increased 8.5 percent while the previous year it only increased 5.5 percent; jewelry sales for the same period increased 10.4 percent. Luxury sales are 6.9 percent lower and jewelry sales are 8.9 lower than before the recession, according to a recent The Associated Press article (Holidays were extra bright for high-status stores).
Luxury spending, especially on automobiles, services, travel and children’s clothing, may rebound for the first time in three years, according to the Survey of Affluence and Wealth in America.
The online poll of 1,900 households with an average annual income in excess of $235,000 by American Express Publishing and Harrison Group indicated that 94 percent of respondents still believed when they answered the questions that the United States is in a recession. The households surveyed between January 2010 and April 2010 represent 10 percent of Americans and 50 percent of all retail sales.
These numbers confirm the similar conclusions based on other indicators that high net worth individuals are recovering confidence and upping their spending (see Income growth slowing, economic divide widening). If luxury spending is increasing at a higher rate than general spending perhaps that is where new products and services will be developed and promoted by forward thinking businesses at least until the rest of the market catches up.
Posted by Elena del Valle on January 13, 2011
Blogged.com, a Southern California site striving to promote social discussions about news from various media sources, rated HispanicMPR.com Excellent with a score of 9.2 out of 10. According to Blogged, Editor Reviews, that site’s unbiased critique by editors of English language sites, are based on frequency of updates, relevance of content, site design, and writing style and compared to other blogs within the same category.
Cambridge, Massachusetts based WebsiteGrader.com, owned by HubSpot, rated HispanicMPR.com 99 of 100. According to the WebsiteGrader website, “A website grade of 99/100 for hispanicmpr.com means that of the millions of websites that have previously been evaluated, our algorithm has calculated that this site scores higher than 99% of them in terms of its marketing effectiveness.” The site accomplishes the grading with its own blend of 50 variables, including search engine data, website structure, traffic, and site performance.
Posted by Elena del Valle on January 12, 2011
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While many consider 2010 an improvement over 2009 and some are optimistic about 2011 few can dispute the lingering effects of the recession on Americans. Although there are signs the economy is improving the number of unemployed nationally is alarming. And we are not alone. Beyond the United States the economic downturn has affected many countries which also exhibit sluggish growth and disappointing employment numbers, in many cases with far higher percentages than those in the United States.
According to a United Nations report (see Further sharp increases in global food prices ‘likely’, UN.org) the price of food is increasing around the globe. Recently an industry expert predicted that due to increasing demand and limited supply the price of gasoline may reach $5 per gallon as soon as 2012. Some point out that these are the normal ways in which artificially inflated economies right themselves, part of a normal cycle with highs and lows. In short, nothing to worry about in the long term.
Yet other data such as the increasingly alarming debt ratios of developed countries including the United States and many Western European countries (see Debt to growth ratios and their impact on business), and an abundance of developed countries with aging population demographics could signal that there is more to the situation that a cursory look might reveal.
If we step back and look at the changes over decades (see Income Inequality: Too Big to Ignore, The New York Times October 16, 2010) the picture that emerges is interesting. During the thirty years that followed World War II, the income of Americans grew 3 percent a year across income levels, fomenting a healthy middle class, well developed infrastructure and growing optimism.
In light of the recent economic downturn fewer voters are willing to support basic updates to infrastructure and public services leaving the country with troubled roads and bridges, a weak rail system, and poor safety standards such as cargo containers that enter our ports without scrutiny and dams in danger of collapsing.
During the past three decades economic growth has slowed, our infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and income growth is evident mostly among the highest percent of earners. For example, in 1976, the share of total income for the top 1 percent of earners was 8.9 percent; by 2007 it had reached 23.5 percent. During that same period the rest of the population’s average hourly wages, once adjusted for inflation, decreased by more than 7 percent. In summary, according to those statistics the ultra wealthy are becoming wealthier and everyone else is becoming less affluent.
Between 1983 and 2007 the most notable gains in wealth and income were among the most affluent 20 percent of the population, especially the top 1 percent, which received 35 percent of the total growth in net worth, 43 percent of the total growth in non home wealth and 44 percent of the total increase in income, according to Recent Trends in Household Wealth in the United States: Rising Debt and the Middle Class Squeeze – an Update to 2007 by Edward N. Wolff published by the Levy Institute of Bard College March 2010. According to the 58-page paper, in 2007, the top 1 percent of the population (those with net worth of $8.2 million or higher) in the country owned 49.3 percent of stocks and mutual funds, 60 percent of financial securities, and 62 percent of business equity. In contrast, the bottom 90 percent of the population owned 10.6 percent of the stocks and mutual funds, 1.5 percent of the financial securities, and 6.7 percent of the business equity.
An example of that are billionaires Warren Buffet and Bill Gates who have decided they are so exceedingly wealthy that they want to share their fortunes with humanity, making a commitment to distribute part of their wealth while they are alive. Recently they recruited other individuals to participate in the project, including Mark Zuckerberg the much talked founder of Facebook who although he is only 26 is wealthy enough to make the cut.
So what do these changes mean for businesses and business people? While only time will tell for sure in the short term it would appear that it is a good time to begin or continue marketing to the very wealthy; emphasizing products that represent good value for money to middle class and wealthy consumers and budget products to just about everyone except those at the very top of the income earners and asset holders.
Posted by Elena del Valle on January 5, 2011
U.S. student enrollment by language 2006-2009 per MLA report
Graphic: Modern Language Association of America
Interest in foreign languages in colleges in the United States increased 6.6 percent between 2006 and 2009. Foreign language enrollment has also been increasingly diverse including a broad range of language studies, according to a new report, Enrollments in Languages Other Than English in United States Institutions of Higher Education, Fall 2009, released December 2010 by the Modern Language Association of America (MLA).
Arabic popularity rose as did Korean and Chinese. Although French, German and Italian were popular Spanish was the most popular foreign language by a wide margin with 864,986 students enrolling in classes during the time period of the report.
“It’s gratifying to see that so many US students recognize the importance of language study for our future,” said Rosemary G. Feal, executive director, Modern Language Association of America in a press release. “The demand for an ever-greater range of languages demonstrates the vitality of the field. Despite troubling cutbacks in language offerings at some institutions, this report shows that overall language remains strong at US colleges and universities.”
The MLA report, produced since 1958, is described as the longest-running and most comprehensive analysis of the study of languages other than English at United States colleges and universities. The report includes undergraduate and graduate course enrollments in languages other than English in fall 2009 for 2,514 AA-, BA-, MA-, and PhD-granting colleges and universities in the United States. The researchers believe these 2,514 institutions represent 99 percent of all higher education institutions offering language courses in the country.
The Modern Language Association of America, dedicated to strengthening the study and teaching of languages and literature, has 30,000 members in 100 countries. Founded in 1883, the MLA strives to provide opportunities for its members to share their scholarly findings and teaching experiences with colleagues and to discuss trends in the academy. According to the MLA website the organization produces twelve new books a year and a variety of publications for language and literature professionals and for the public.
Posted by Elena del Valle on January 3, 2011
We wish you and yours a wonderful, healthy and prosperous 2011!
Posted by Elena del Valle on December 8, 2010
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Graphic: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture
In 2009, 14.7 percent of residents of the United States or about 50 million people in the Land of Plenty suffered some form of hunger, representing the highest number of households suffering from hunger since 1995 when the first such survey took place. This included 5.7 percent of households where one or more household members ate less and their eating patterns were interrupted sometimes due to lack of money or food. The figures reflect no significant change compared to the previous year although 57 percent of all food-insecure households benefited from a Federal food and nutrition assistance program during the month prior to the 2009 survey.
Another way to look at it that last year only 85 percent of American households had access to enough food for an active, healthy life, according to the Household Security in the United States, 2009, a 62-page report written by Mark Nord Alisha Coleman-Jensen Margaret Andrews Steven Carlson and published by the United States Department of Agriculture (Nord, Mark, Alisha Coleman-Jensen, Margaret Andrews, and Steven Carlson. Household Food Security in the United States, 2009. ERR- 108, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Econ. Res. Serv. November 2010)
There were significantly more households with insufficient food than the national average among households with incomes near or below the Federal poverty line, among households with children, headed by single women (36.6 percent) or single men (27.8 percent), Black households (24.9 percent) and Hispanic households (26.9 percent). Households with low food resources were more prevalent than the national average (5.7 percent) for households with children headed by single women (12.9 percent), women living alone (7.4 percent), men living alone (7.1 percent), Black and Hispanic households (both 9.3 percent), households with incomes below 185 percent of the poverty line (14.4 percent), and households located in principal cities of metropolitan areas (6.8 percent).
The states with the highest percent of households with insufficient food were Arkansas (17.7 percent), Texas (17.4 percent) and Mississippi (17.1 percent); the states with the lowest percent of households where occupants went hungry in 2009 were North Dakota (6.7 percent), New Hampshire (just under 9 percent) and Virginia (9.2 percent). Some 17.7 million people (6 percent of Americans) compared with 1.3 million in 2008 had multiple times when they did not have enough food and could not afford meals.
Posted by Elena del Valle on November 29, 2010
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According to a recent Associated Press article (Rate of unmarried mothers reaches 72% among blacks), the offspring of unmarried mothers of any race are more likely than others to under perform in school, be imprisoned, use drugs, live in poverty as adults and have children while unmarried. In spite of the grim statistics 41 percent of mothers in the United States in 2008 were unmarried.
When we examine the statistics by racial and ethnic groups the figures are revealing. The most notable figure is among blacks where 72 percent of mothers that year were unwed. Still significant was that 66 percent of Native American and 53 percent of Latino mothers were unmarried. Twenty-nine percent of non Hispanic white mothers were unmarried that year. Asian moms were the least likely (17 percent) to have a child while unmarried.
Social attitudes toward marriage have changed in recent generations and being a single mother is much less frowned upon by society than in past decades. As women have become better able to make a living on their own their need to be married and have a husband in their lives for purely financial reasons has decreased significantly even if their earning power is lower than that of their male peers in many professions according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (see Earning power for women stalls as pay scale still lags behind men at NJ.com).
At the same time, it is possible that some of the mothers in the Associated Press article statistics have significant others helping to raise the newborn. Some may find the high percent of unmarried mothers among historically Catholic Latinos surprising.
In some cases they make have a life partner but didn’t marry because they couldn’t afford the cost of a big wedding in the country of origin, according to an article about unmarried Hispanic mothers in Tennessee. Some even may be in a relationship where one of the partners may not be able to marry because they already have a spouse in their country of origin. Or they may be mimicking United States living together trends as part of the acculturation process.
Posted by Elena del Valle on November 24, 2010
Posted by Elena del Valle on November 15, 2010
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Photo: Nestlé
Americans consume a respectable amount of coffee although if we look at the big picture the amount of coffee the typical person in the United States drinks per capita is modest compared to that of many consumers in Western European nations. The top consumers by far are the Scandinavians. In 2002, Norwegians drank an average 10.7 kilos of coffee per person per year. Finland and Denmark were close behind with consumption around 10 kilos in each country. Dutch, Swiss, German, Austrian, Belgian, French and Italians were all ahead of the United States in coffee drinking, according to the Global Market Information Database by Euromonitor.
In 2009, in the United States daily consumption of coffee beverages among consumers remained consistent with 54 percent of the overall adult population partaking; cups-per-drinker and cups-per-capita held at the 2008 level and that of the previous four years, according to the National Coffee Association. While coffee consumption has held steady during the recession there are some consumption and purchasing trends worth noting.
Most people buy their coffee at the supermarket, according to the recent findings of Mintel, a research company. In the last five years this venue has grown 18 percent, reaching $3.4 billion this year. Another significant venue for retail sales are mass merchandisers and dollar stores. These venues grew 19 percent and reached $3.8 billion in 2010. The expectation for the immediate future is that the lower consumer confidence the greater the growth in these stores.
As people worry about the economy they migrate toward roasted coffee and other products they can brew at work and at home. If the worries deepen they are likely to seek value brands like Folgers and Maxwell House. FDMx sales of roasted coffee led overall market growth and grew 3.8 percent between June of 2009 and 2010. Folgers, part of J.M. Smucker Co. and seen by many as a strong United States brand, also had strong growth during those months. Kraft brands Maxwell House and Yuban also showed gains.
Sales of Nescafé Clasico increased 10.9 percent
In addition to the over 45 and over 55 market segments which exhibit the largest growth (see Baby Boomers biggest coffee drinkers, Emerging Markets likely to drive future growth), another segment expected to continue exhibiting high demand is Hispanics. FDMx sales of Nescafé Clasico, sometimes sold in bilingual packages, increased by 10.9 percent during the period examined by Mintel leading researchers to conclude that bilingual packaging may drive growth in instant coffee products which they found to be very popular among Spanish-speaking Latinos. Some marketers believe coffee sellers should enhance bilingual messages and packaging for instant coffee products popular among Spanish-speaking Hispanics. Nescafé Clasico, also available in Decaf and Suave flavors, is described on the Nestlé website as “the leading coffee for Latinos in the U.S.” and “the fastest growing brand in the instant coffee category with distribution nationwide in the U.S.”
Hispanics are more likely to drink coffee than non Hispanic whites, blacks and Asians. Among Asian coffee drinkers almost half buy whole bean coffee compared to 29 percent in the general population. According to Mintel, the research suggests that representations of Latinos should “often be included in advertisements as this helps to create brand relevance within the segment.” While among the general population 29 percent of buyers choose whole bean coffee, nearly half of Asian coffee-consuming households prefer whole bean coffee. Mintel researchers believe marketers should include Asians in advertising campaigns for whole bean coffee.
Fifty four percent of Latino Mintel survey respondents indicated they like non-sweetened instant coffee compared to 28 percent of the general population. About 70 percent of Spanish dominant Latinos (those who speak mostly or only Spanish), especially in Los Angeles, California and El Paso, Texas, like instant coffee.
