Tuesday, November 15, 2022

How soon will things get better?

Posted by Elena del Valle on January 13, 2010

Click on image to enlarge

Graphic: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

With an additional 85,000 jobs lost in the United States last month there is no doubt that joblessness has become the leading and most serious indicator of our nation’s economic crisis. According to a recent The New York Times article, as of December 2009 most unemployed Americans remain in that state for 29 weeks, the longest since the government began tracking that data in 1948. In order just to keep pace with new arrivals into the workforce the country needs 100,000 new jobs a month. There simply are not enough jobs. Worst of all there is no prospect of enough new jobs developing anytime soon. Are things getting better elsewhere?

At the end of last week the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) which tracks changes in 29 countries announced its composite leading indicators or CLIs for November 2009 point to “stronger signals for recovery than last month’s assessment.” Researchers calculated CLIs for 29 OECD countries and 9 zones.

Analysts at the Paris-based organization interpret the new data to indicate an upward movement in the index of industrial production for the seven countries they examined, except Canada and the United Kingdom. The release also indicates that the CLIs for those major seven countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States) moved above their long-term trend, indicating “an expansionary outlook relative to trend.” The organization’s data for major non member countries economies points to a recovery.

Specifically, the CLI for the OECD area increased by 1.0 point in November 2009 and was 8.2 points higher than in November 2008. The CLI for the United States increased by 1.0 point in November, 6.8 points higher than a year earlier. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 1.1 point in November, 10.9 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Japan increased by 1.2 point in November, 5.4 points higher than a year ago.

The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 1.2 point in November 2009, 10.7 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Canada increased by 1.0 point in November, 9.4 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for France increased by 1.2 point in November, 11.9 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Germany increased by 1.4 points in November, 12.3 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Italy increased by 0.9 point in November, 13.8 points higher than a year ago.

The CLI for China increased 0.2 point in November 2009, 7.6 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for India is remained the same in November and 4.3 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Russia increased by 1.0 point in November, 3.4 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Brazil increased by 0.8 point in November, 1.3 points lower than a year ago.

What these numbers mean to everyday people in practical terms is anyone’s guess. For now, it seems to offer a small glimmer of hope that the famous V shape of the economic trend is moving up and away from the bottom in some countries.

OECD provides a forum for member governments to compare policy experiences, “seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and coordinate domestic and international policies.” The OECD-Total covers 29 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States. The Euro area (only Euro area countries that are members of OECD) covers 13 countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovak Republic and Spain. The Major Five Asia area covers China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.

Unemployment rate among U.S. youth alarming

Posted by Elena del Valle on December 9, 2009


Angel Gurría, secretary-general, OECD

Photo: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

In spite of the recent talk of job related improvements, millions of Americans have suffered the ill effects of unemployment. Teenagers have been hit especially hard. For example, in November 2009, more than 25 percent of 16 to 19 year-old Americans were unemployed compared to ten percent for all workers. This is said to be the highest rate of teenage unemployment in the U.S. since World War II.

According to Jobs for Youth: United States, a 170-page report released this month by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in the year to November 2009, the youth unemployment rate in the United States rose by 8 percentage points to 19 percent representing an additional 1.6 million young people out of work.

“The short-term priority must be to help the young people most at risk to avoid the long-term scarring of a generation of young Americans,” said Angel Gurría, secretary-general, OECD in a news release. “Business must play its part in creating jobs but the government has to act quickly to extend financial support to more young people and increase funding for re-employment programmes. Longer-term, investing more in education to give young people the skills they need to succeed is essential.”


Unemployment in U.S. Youth 2008-2009 – click to enlarge

As recently as 2007, the youth employment rate was 53 percent. While not ideal, especially when compared with 60 percent in 2000; the youth unemployment rate, at 11 percent, was about 1 percentage point higher than its 2000 level. The report summary predicts African-American youth, youth with no qualifications and young women are particularly to face increasing challenges.

Jobs for Youth: United States is the latest in a series of OECD reports on youth employment policies that covers 14 countries. OECD provides a forum for member governments to compare policy experiences, “seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and coordinate domestic and international policies.”


Target Latinos effectively by understanding how they shop

“Hispanic Holiday Shopping Patterns” audio recording

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Manuel Delgado, CEO Agua Marketing, gives a presentation and participates in an extended Q&A discussion about

  • Hispanic shopping patterns national survey
  • Why Latino consumers may be more desirable than general market shoppers
  • Hispanics holiday shopping patterns and behaviors

Click here for information on “Hispanic Holiday Shopping Patterns” audio recording